By Syed Shahabuddin
The Election Commission has announced the programme for the General Elections 2009 but the Muslim community is neither psychologically nor strategically prepared to face it. It is in a state of confusion which in a sense matches the political confusion at the national level.
The population of the Muslim community in January 2009 is estimated at 165 million out of the estimated national population of 1,250 million, that is, 13.7%. Muslims form a pan-Indian community with varying proportion from state to state and constituency to constituency but 96.5% live in just 15 states with more than 1% in each. Proportionately it can claim 74 seats in the 543 strong Lok Sabha; today it occupies only 37; Even in Jammu & Kashmir where it forms a majority, its current deprivation is of the order of 25%; in other states the level of deprivation goes up to 100%. But this under-representation has characterized it ever since the first General Election in 1951 and there is no doubt that it shall continue in the future, hopefully with a smaller margin of deprivation. It all depends on how wisely the Muslim electorate plays it cards particularly in constituencies in which it forms at least 20% of the electorate and where a share if its vote is sought by all the parties in the arena. If the community is not united and is bereft of a common political objective or electoral strategy its vote will be divided from constituency to constituency. Before we go into the reasons for under-representation, let us have a look at the national scene. Today, the BSP leader Mayawati with her base in UP, the biggest state of the Union, is dreaming of becoming the consensus prime minister in case the three alliances – one led by INC, the other by BJP and the third by the Left, fail to secure the requisite majority of 272. The national confusion is also visible in the multiplicity of prospective Prime Minsiters, apart from Manmohan Singh, Rahul Gandhi or a dark horse in the INC, Pawar and Mulayam stand on the margin. The BJP has chosen Advani. Even the Left-supported third front is not free from personal ambitions! At the lost count there are at least four; TDP’s Chandrababu Naidu, JD(S)’s Devegowda and AIADMK’s Jayalalitha and possibly one more from the ranks of the Left. This naturally has an unsettling impact on the Muslim mind, on whom they should help to occupy the gaddi of Delhi.
There is no national party, because, in 60 years of democracy, we have failed to develop a two-party system. Indeed even the big two, namely INC and BJP are not present in all the states. Their core constituency is limited and does not command the loyalty of all sections of the population. Therefore, they are only magnified versions of the BSP or SP or RJD or NCP or even the Left. Unfortunately, the Muslims do not figure in the core constituency of any major political party. Neither have the Muslims, under the psychological burden of Partition, shown the political courage of forming a Muslim party
or even a Muslim-core secular party like the Chamars,the Yadavs, the Bhadraloks, the Marathas or the Brahmins have. This results in that in about 140 constituencies where they constitute more than 20% of the electorate, including 14 in which they form a majority and another 28 in which they are above 30%, all political parties including the BJP desire their support, even if partial, but do not commit themselves to anything substantive for their benefit or to redress their grievances, if they come to power.
Another factor which vitally affects Muslims is the disunity among the avowed secular parties so that the even in a Muslim-winnable constituency more than one secular parties field candidates, thus dividing Muslim votes, to add to the existing political, sectarian and baradari cleavages. In the process many a time the secular parties lose the seat to the anti-secular forces.
The difference between the INC-led alliance and the Left has been aggravated during the last phase of the UPA government. We need not go into its history. But it resulted in the INC virtually dissolving the UPA and instead adopting a strategy of having state level understanding. Political Objective
In any case, the Muslim electorate must realize that all political parties which swear by secularism have their own agenda and their operatively base is communal and caste calculations. Therefore, the Muslims must spell out its own political objectives and match it with united voting at least at the constituency level. Otherwise it will end up as target of political poachers in the constituencies where they matter. Above all, they have to recognize and reject the dummies bear Muslim names, but are sponsored or even funded by hostile forces only to divide their votes and make it ineffective. They have also to decide their choice when the secular parties are unable to field common Muslim candidates by mutual agreement, even in high concentration Muslim seats.
Thirdly,in many constituencies, some the Muslim electors, out of apathy or neglect or lack of guidance, have not registered themselves. Many a time even if registered they do not consider voting to be important enough to take the trouble of going to the booths, with their womenfolk. Sometimes they are apprehensive of passing through Hindu dominated localities to reach their booths. But all these can be overcome if they understand the importance of voting in a democracy and develop a political agenda and the tactical skill to promote it.
Sometimes, Muslim organizations and institutions of national eminence by not reaching a consensus on the candidate to be supported end up by dividing Muslim votes at constituency level. The exercise of selecting one appropriate candidate to be jointly sponsored by major Muslim organizations like the JIH, the AIMMM, the AIMC and the JUH for each constituency appears to have lost steam. This collective counselling must be revived.
Finally, the major cause of their under-representation lies in that no secular party fields Muslim candidates even in all Muslim-winnable constituencies, who are acceptable to the Muslim electorate . Muslims as the Knights of Secularism
From election to election, the Muslim community has been mesmerized by the mantra of secularism, though the community as a whole realizes that no party is untainted with communalism. In any case few parties come to its rescue in a crisis or support it in a situation of conflict. Once they reach the Lok Sabha, the ‘secular’ MPs, whatever their religion or party label, never ask question about their situation or raise matters of interest to them or otherwise draw the attention of the Government. It is amazing that hardly any issue of Muslim interest has been raised by the Muslim MPs during the last five years, not even to demand the annual balance sheet on the revised PM’s Programme for the Welfare of the Minorities or on progress of implementation of the suggestions of the Sachar Committee. Their sordid indifference is exemplified by absolute silence of Muslim MPs or their ‘secular’ friends to force the Government at least to table the Report of the National Commission on Religious and Linguistic Minorities headed by Justice Ranganath Mishra which was submitted to the Government in May 2007. If the matter had been raised jointly by the Muslim secular MPs, whatever the political calculation of the Government, it would have been forced at least to table the Report. Similarly, no question has been asked on the development of the investigation relating to the Gujarat Genocide as ordered by the Supreme Court when it became an international and judicial scandal.
Raging Frustration among Muslims: Muslim Party?
Muslim electorate rightly questions whether the avowed secular MPs or even those bearing Muslim names serve any purpose. This frustration is beginning to distance the Muslims from the democratic system as practised. On the eve of every General Election particularly in states where proportionately their share is large like UP, Bihar, West Bengal, Assam, AP and Maharashtra, there is a persistent debate on forming a Muslim party. By last account, in UP, at least a dozen new parties are in the field. They all speak of Muslim unity and end up by dividing it! It is obvious that any new initiative to show results needs at least five years to mature and should be initiated in advance. So the motive is not bonafide. Even the recognized Muslim parties like the IUML of Kerala or the AIMIM of Andhra Pradesh with one or two members in the Parliament generally line up with the party in power and do not have the courage to raise Muslim issues or act independently. The community wants representatives who are not shackled or silenced by their political masters but under the present system, independents have little or no chance. So high Muslim population states become a playground for political adventurers. Some of them are old faces who adopt new labels. They all fall silent once the election season is over, if they have not been able to persuade any major party to take them in its fold and award them a winnable ticket on its symbol. Muslim leaders and organizations finally reach out to the established parties for a reward for carrying their s message to the community.
Muslim-Dalit Alliance
Another debate often revives the old idea of a Muslim Front to lead the oppressed masses including the Dalits, but they little realize that every major political party has its own method of securing Dalit support. They build up one or two leaders over a period of time. Secondly the dalits have now well established parties like the BSP in UP, the LJP in Bihar, the Republican in Maharahstra, the JMM in Jharkhand. So they do not respond to any overtures by Muslim leaders. Muslim politicians hardly realize that electoral mechanics demand first a social core among the Muslims which may then by its performance and publicity, attract the other marginalized communities to join hands.
The fact is that the Muslim masses pay little attention to national problems; as they are wrapped up in their own. They never agitate for their redresssal, except to defend their dignity against offensive imputations. Sometimes in their pan-Islamic exuberance, they speak for Muslims in other parts of the world.
With their illusion about secular parties shattered, some members of the Muslim intelligentsia are beginning to ask why not support the BJP. They do not appear to realize that the apathy, insensitivity and hostility consistently shown by the BJP have deep ideological roots. Essentially, fascist in outlook, the anti-secular and anti-democratic forces do not care for the lower castes, far less for the minorities, because their objective is to keep the high castes particularly the Brahmins in positions of power, and thus to transform India into a Hindu state. BJP and its allies are by reputation and record out of bounds for the average Muslim voter; so his choice really lies between the two other alliances.
So, the Muslim community is left finally with the same old bunch, has no option but to support the INC and its allies: or the Left which is trying to stitch together a Third national front as an alternative to the Congresss and the BJP. But even the Left has its core social constituency whether it is West Bengal or Kerala. Many of them see the pitiable face of the Muslim community in West Bengal which constitutes nearly 28% of the population but which according to the Sachar Report is the most backward Muslim community in the country. The Muslim also recall their experience with the TDP in AP, the AIADMK in TN, the JD or its various fragments in several states. To sum up, while the Muslims must support the concept of a secular state, There is no reason why they should assume the burden of promoting it which is a national responsibility. My view is that the Muslims should not vote on the basis of their fascination with secularism except where there is a direct contest between the BJP and an avowed secular party.
The other illusion that the Muslim masses nurse is on political stability and strong government and they appoint themselves as guardians and advocates of stable and strong governance. A minority which has been persistently ill-treated needs to wake up to reality. The secular UPA failed to do justice and ignored the logic of its own initiatives. It reduced the Sachar recommendations to the grant of a few thousand scholarships. Its 15 point programme which has seen several incarnations in 30 years has not made any appreciable change in their status. Like any other political party, the UPA fell victim to its political calculations as the elections crept closer, that if it does anything positive and effective for the uplift of the Muslims, even releases Justice Mishra’s recommendations of 10% reservation, it may gain some Muslim votes but lose many more votes of the Hindus whose minds have been poisoned by the Hindutva forces. From the minorities point of view, a strong and stable government is not a blessing in our system. It is likely to be more indifferent to the deprived, the exploited and the oppressed. On the other hand, a weak government which faces the threat of change with every turn of the political dice, is likely to make some effort to keep the support of the weaker sections and the minorities.
Litmus Test for Secular Parties
When there are more than one ‘secular’ parties in the field the Muslim electorate should decide to vote for the party and the candidate only if both commit themselves publicly to recognize the Muslim community as a Backward Class on the basis of the Sachar findings, that the Muslim community as a whole is almost as Backward as the SC/ST and more backward than non-Muslim OBCs and to implement the recommendations of the Mishra Commission to provide 15% reservation for the minorities in government jobs. higher education, social development benefits and resources flow, out of which 10% exclusively for Muslims plus the unutilized part of the other 5%.
The Muslims are not in a position to force the issue but at least they can make the point that without reservation there can be no empowerment, no inclusive development, no power-sharing and no uplift and that their progress and development is not only a Constitutional responsibility but also a national task. Secondly, they should also take into account proportion, quality and location of their Muslim candidates. These should be the litmus tests for secular parties and candidates. These questions will serve to screen out those who only want their votes, not to raise them from the pit of backwardness. Failed Politics of Charter of Demands or Memorandum
Muslim leaders present long Charters of demands and Memoranda to the political parties or the Governments regularly, particularly on the eve of elections. The Muslim masses are sick of this ineffective approach adopted for the last 60 years. There is no party that is not aware of their problems but the Muslims have been ditched even by the parties which made promises in their manifestoes.
Sonia Gandhi and Manmohan Singh are both secular in their outlook but they could not fulfill the or commitments to Muslims in their manifesto or speeches because essentially democracy is a game of numbers and in a segmented society a minority cannot be equated with the majority. The secular order is thus reduced to a vote catching device. Now even Advani calls himself secular and promises ‘justice for all’, but condemns any gesture, positive even symbolic, toward the Muslims as ‘appeasement’.
An elector, Muslim or otherwise, is not really the King of the Republic as often pronounced by political parties. He is but a small but vital keg in the Constitutional scheme as a voter in his constituency. Under our electoral symtem he can only decide the fate of a candidate in his constituency, and no more. But having elected someone he is out of game for the next 5 years. He is forgotten, although the party in power continues to speak in the name of ‘Aam Admi’.
Time has come for every Muslim voter in every constituency to demand reservation openly and clearly without mincing words. He should have only one demand – Reservation, as the key for the door to his welfare, and to equality and justice. Reservation alone will ensure that niether police nor administration misbehave or ignore him, just as they cannot play fools with the SC/ST.
The Indian society is highly fragmented. Every fragment is selfish and self/centered and once in the seats of power operates against all others, not only Muslims. But the others wake up and settle the account. Muslims should also wake up and organize a nation-wide Movement for Reservation educating the public opinion and adopting all available democratic methods at every level, from meeting and rallies, to dharnas and bandhs.
Youth from 20% of the electorate and reservation is for their benefit. So the unemployed Muslim youth is thirsting for education and resources, but with the energy that youth possesses, it should enter the arena with the resolve to sustain the struggle till they achieve what is their legitimate constitutional, political and social due. They must prove that the Muslims are not paper tigers or just barking dogs which never bite. No political objective can be achieved without unity and sacrifice, the Muslim community must remember.
New Delhi
1 March, 2009 |
